The Milky Way has a 50-50 possibility of hitting a neighboring galaxy in the next 10 billion years, a brand-new research study discovers.

While those chances appear overwhelming, the brand-new finding recommends the disastrous accident is far less most likely than formerly believed.

Found approximately 2.5 million light-years away, the Andromeda (M31) galaxy is approaching our Galaxy at a speed of 68 miles per 2nd (110 kilometers per second). Due to the fact that of this astronomers have actually long forecasted that the 2 galaxies will undoubtedly end up being secured a deadly dance at some point in the next numerous billion years– spiraling into each other and combining to form a brand-new galaxy.

According to a brand-new research study, released July 31 on the preprint server arXivthe 2 galaxies are simply as most likely to directly miss out on each other.

“We discover that unpredictabilities in today positions, movements, and masses of all galaxies leave space for significantly various results, and a likelihood of near to 50% that there is no Milky Way-Andromeda merger throughout the next 10 billion years,” the authors composed in the research study.

Related: James Webb Telescope areas galaxies from the dawn of time that are so huge they ‘should not exist’

American astronomer Vesto Slipher found Andromeda galaxy’s possible clash with our own in 1912, when he discovered that Andromeda’s light was doppler-shifted to the blue part of the light spectrum due to its technique.

More research studies forecasted that Andromeda’s ultimate crash with our Milky Way was unavoidable within the next 5 billion years — a procedure that would see our planetary system catapulted to an external arm of the recently combined galaxy.

According to the scientists behind the brand-new research study, these earlier research studies did not take into account a “confounding aspect”– the gravitational results of the other, smaller sized galaxies inside the Local Group to which the Milky Way and Andromeda belong, which might push the galaxies away from a crash completely.

The scientists utilized observations from the Gaia and Hubble area telescopes to get quotes of the masses, motions and gravitational interactions of the 4 biggest Local Group galaxies. They then fed these information into a design that simulated a variety of possible circumstances.

With the interactions of the 4 biggest galaxies inside the regional group (the Milky Way, Andromeda, the Triangulum galaxy and the Big Magellanic Cloudconsidered, the scientists discovered the possibilities of a Milky Way-Andromeda accident were decreased to a coin turn. And if the merger does happen, it will not be for a minimum of another 8 billion years.

“We discover that the next most huge Local Group member galaxies– particularly, M33 [Triangulum] and the Large Magellanic Cloud– noticeably and drastically impact the Milky Way-Andromeda orbit,” they composed. “Uncertainties in today positions, movements and masses of all galaxies leave space for significantly various results.”

In spite of this, the scientists keep in mind that their research study is far from the last word on a “Milkomeda” merger. To make much better computations, the researchers are waiting for the release of brand-new information from the just recently recalibrated Gaia area telescope.

“Upcoming Gaia information releases will enhance the appropriate movement restraints and mass designs are constantly improved,” the scientists composed. “However, it is clear that stellar eschatology [the study of end days] is still in its infancy and substantial work is needed before the ultimate fate of the Local Group can be anticipated with any certainty. As it stands, pronouncements of the upcoming death of our galaxy appear considerably overemphasized.”

Ultimately, all of the galaxies within the Local Group will clash and combine, however this procedure might take lot of times longer than deep space’s present age to take place.

Ben Turner is a U.K. based personnel author at Live Science. He covers physics and astronomy, to name a few subjects like tech and environment modification. He finished from University College London with a degree in particle physics before training as a reporter. When he’s not composing, Ben takes pleasure in checking out literature, playing the guitar and humiliating himself with chess.