In 2025, planetary researchers reported the detection of long-chain alkanes at concentrations of approximately 30 to 50 parts per billion in the ancient Cumberland mudstone in Gale crater, Mars.

They proposed that the alkanes were originated from thermal decarboxylation of fats throughout analysis by Curiosity’s Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument.

In a brand-new research study, Dr. Alexander Pavlov from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and his coworkers argue that the determined worths are simply a lower limitation, due to the fact that the majority of the initial natural product was most likely ruined by radiation over 10s of countless years.

The Cumberland mudstone might initially have actually included in between 120 and 7,700 parts per countless long-chain alkanes or their fatty-acid precursors before it was exposed at the surface area.

“To reach this conclusion, we integrated laboratory radiation experiments, mathematical modeling, and Curiosity information to ‘rewind the clock’ about 80 million years– the length of time the rock would have been exposed on the Martian surface area,” the scientists stated.

“This permitted us to approximate just how much natural product would have existed before being damaged by long-lasting direct exposure to cosmic radiation: even more than normal non-biological procedures might produce.”

The researchers likewise evaluated whether recognized non-biological procedures might describe the abnormally high presumed abundance of long-chain alkanes.

According to the research study, shipment by meteorites and interplanetary dust particles is inadequate by numerous orders of magnitude, offered the approximated sedimentation rates and the failure of dust particles to permeate lithified rock.

Climatic production of natural haze is likewise not likely, since early Mars most likely did not have the methane-rich conditions needed to produce considerable haze deposition.

The authors likewise took a look at hydrothermal procedures that can produce hydrocarbons under particular conditions.

While laboratory experiments reveal that long-chain natural particles can form hydrothermally, the mineralogy of the Cumberland mudstone shows it did not experience the heats related to such responses.

The findings recommend a more speculative possibility: that some or all of the initial natural product might have been produced by a theoretical ancient Martian biosphere.

“We concur with Carl Sagan’s claim that remarkable claims need remarkable proof and comprehend that any supposed detection of life on Mars will always be consulted with extreme examination,” the scientists stated.

“In addition, in practice with recognized standards in the field of astrobiology, we keep in mind that the certainty of a life detection beyond Earth will need several lines of proof.”

“Nevertheless, our method has actually led us to approximate that the Cumberland mudstone conservatively consisted of 120-7,700 parts per countless long-chain alkanes and/or fats before direct exposure to ionizing radiation.”

“We argue that such high concentrations of long-chain alkanes are irregular with a couple of recognized abiotic sources of natural particles on ancient Mars, particularly shipment of organics by interplanetary dust particles and meteorites, climatic fallout and deposition from photochemical haze, and natural production from serpentinization and Fischer-Tropsch responses on the Red Planet.”

“In contrast, it is not unreasonable to assume that an ancient Martian biosphere would can producing this level of complicated natural enrichment in Martian mudstone deposits, which allochthonous shipment of hydrothermally manufactured organics might have added to the abundance of alkanes discovered in the Cumberland mudstone.”

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Alexander A. Pavlov et alDoes the Measured Abundance Suggest a Biological Origin for the Ancient Alkanes Preserved in a Martian Mudstone? Astrobiologyreleased online February 4, 2026; doi: 10.1177/ 15311074261417879