2024 YR4 was found by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on December 27, 2024.

At the time, the asteroid made a close method to Earth, passing at a range of simply 0.017 AU (huge systems).

In January 2025, one month after its discovery, 2024 YR4 increased above the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) notice limit of 1% possibility of a future effect with Earth, forecasted for 22 December 2032. With more analysis, the Earth effect possibility then dropped listed below 1% in February.

While the asteroid will miss out on Earth throughout this encounter, there stays a couple of percent possibility it might strike the Moon rather.

Intrigued in defining the now popular asteroid, Eureka Scientific asrtonomer Bryce Bolin and coworkers utilized the Gemini South telescope to record pictures of 2024 YR4 in numerous various wavelengths.

In-depth analysis of the asteroid’s lightcurve enabled the group to identify its structure, orbital attributes and 3D shape.

“Our observations with Gemini South supplied a vital piece of the puzzle in figuring out 2024 YR4’s qualities,” Dr. Bolin stated.

“Studying this asteroid was essential in comprehending the population of Earth crossers that have the possible to be Earth impactors and are inadequately comprehended.”

The info collected from the lightcurves shows that 2024 YR4 is likely an S-type asteroid, suggesting it has a structure abundant in silicates.

The reflective pattern likewise recommends a size of about 30-65 m (98-213 feet), making it among the biggest items in current history that might affect the Moon.

While it stays not likely, if it does affect the Moon the asteroid will offer an extraordinary chance to study the relationship in between the size of an asteroid and the size of its resulting effect crater– a formerly unidentified amount.

The analysis likewise exposed that the asteroid has a quick rotation duration of around one rotation per 20 minutes, along with an uncommon hockey-puck-like shape

“This discover was rather unanticipated given that the majority of asteroids are believed to be formed like potatoes or toy tops instead of flat disks,” Dr. Bolin stated.

Based upon these orbital qualities, the astronomers identified that 2024 YR4 probably stemmed from the primary asteroid belt, with a high likelihood of being disturbed into its existing near-Earth orbit by gravitational interactions with Jupiter.

Its retrograde spin instructions recommends it might have moved inward from the central primary belt area, contributing to our understanding of how little asteroids progress and reach Earth-crossing trajectories.

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Bryce T. Bolin et al2025. The discovery and characterization of Earth-crossing asteroid 2024 YR4. ApJLin press; arXiv: 2503.05694 v2